The full forecast
All 48 qualifiers by our model’s win probability against the market. Click a column to sort, filter by confederation, open a team for the deep dive.
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| # | Team | Win ↓ | Market | Edge | Final | Semi | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | +0.9 | 30.6 | 52.1 | 83.4 | |
| 2 | 11.6 | 10.7 | +0.8 | 26.6 | 45.2 | 72.3 | |
| 3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 23.0 | 39.2 | 62.6 | |
| 4 | 8.7 | 8.1 | +0.6 | 20.0 | 33.9 | 54.3 | |
| 5 | 7.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | 17.3 | 29.4 | 47.1 | |
| 6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | +0.4 | 15.0 | 25.5 | 40.8 | |
| 7 | 5.7 | 5.3 | +0.4 | 13.0 | 22.1 | 35.4 | |
| 8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | +0.3 | 11.3 | 19.2 | 30.7 | |
| 9 | 4.3 | 4.0 | +0.3 | 9.8 | 16.6 | 26.6 | |
| 10 | 3.7 | 3.4 | +0.3 | 8.5 | 14.4 | 23.1 | |
| 11 | 3.2 | 3.0 | +0.2 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 20.0 | |
| 12 | 2.8 | 2.6 | +0.2 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 17.3 | |
| 13 | 2.4 | — | — | 5.5 | 9.4 | 15.0 | |
| 14 | 2.1 | — | — | 4.8 | 8.1 | 13.0 | |
| 15 | 1.8 | — | — | 4.2 | 7.0 | 11.3 | |
| 16 | 1.6 | — | — | 3.6 | 6.1 | 9.8 | |
| 17 | 1.4 | — | — | 3.1 | 5.3 | 8.5 | |
| 18 | 1.2 | — | — | 2.7 | 4.6 | 7.3 | |
| 19 | 1.0 | — | — | 2.3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | |
| 20 | 0.9 | — | — | 2.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | |
| 21 | 0.8 | — | — | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.8 | |
| 22 | 0.7 | — | — | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.2 | |
| 23 | 0.6 | — | — | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | |
| 24 | 0.5 | — | — | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.1 | |
| 25 | 0.4 | — | — | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | |
| 26 | 0.4 | — | — | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.3 | |
| 27 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | |
| 28 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | |
| 29 | 0.2 | — | — | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | |
| 30 | 0.2 | — | — | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| 31 | 0.2 | — | — | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | |
| 32 | 0.2 | — | — | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | |
| 33 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | |
| 34 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | |
| 35 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | |
| 36 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | |
| 37 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |
| 38 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
| 39 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |
| 40 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |
| 41 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |
| 42 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| 43 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| 44 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| 45 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |
| 46 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| 47 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| 48 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Toss-ups
The model’s least-confident group-stage matches, ranked by the entropy of the win / draw / loss split.
No toss-ups in this run yet (group fixtures may not be drawn into the model).
Credible intervals
80% credible intervals on the key probabilities for the top contenders — the band is the model’s parameter uncertainty made visible.
TeamP(win)P(final)P(semi)P(quarter)
13.3% [10.8%, 15.8%]
30.6% [28.1%, 33.1%]
52.1% [49.6%, 54.6%]
83.4% [80.9%, 85.9%]
11.6% [9.0%, 14.1%]
26.6% [24.1%, 29.1%]
45.2% [42.7%, 47.7%]
72.3% [69.8%, 74.8%]
10.0% [7.5%, 12.5%]
23.0% [20.5%, 25.5%]
39.2% [36.7%, 41.7%]
62.6% [60.2%, 65.1%]
8.7% [6.2%, 11.2%]
20.0% [17.5%, 22.5%]
33.9% [31.4%, 36.4%]
54.3% [51.8%, 56.8%]
7.5% [5.0%, 10.0%]
17.3% [14.8%, 19.8%]
29.4% [26.9%, 31.9%]
47.1% [44.6%, 49.6%]
6.5% [4.0%, 9.0%]
15.0% [12.5%, 17.5%]
25.5% [23.0%, 28.0%]
40.8% [38.3%, 43.3%]
5.7% [3.2%, 8.2%]
13.0% [10.5%, 15.5%]
22.1% [19.6%, 24.6%]
35.4% [32.9%, 37.9%]
4.9% [2.4%, 7.4%]
11.3% [8.8%, 13.8%]
19.2% [16.7%, 21.7%]
30.7% [28.2%, 33.2%]
4.3% [1.8%, 6.8%]
9.8% [7.3%, 12.3%]
16.6% [14.1%, 19.1%]
26.6% [24.1%, 29.1%]
3.7% [1.2%, 6.2%]
8.5% [6.0%, 11.0%]
14.4% [11.9%, 16.9%]
23.1% [20.5%, 25.6%]
3.2% [0.7%, 5.7%]
7.3% [4.9%, 9.8%]
12.5% [10.0%, 15.0%]
20.0% [17.5%, 22.5%]
2.8% [0.3%, 5.3%]
6.4% [3.9%, 8.9%]
10.8% [8.3%, 13.3%]
17.3% [14.8%, 19.8%]